64 research outputs found
Exploring long-term strategies for the German Energy Transition - A Review of Multi-Sector Energy Scenarios
This article systematically compares 26 different scenarios of climate-friendly energy systems, aiming at a reduction of CO2 emissions of at least 90% for Germany in 2050. Technical strategies in terms of technology or energy carrier mixes in the end-use sectors industry, buildings, and transport as well as in the conversion sectors are examined. In addition, the consequences of those different strategies in terms of electricity demand, installed capacity for electricity generation, demand for synthetic fuels and gases (P2X), etc. are looked at. Furthermore, imports of electricity and P2X are compared. In conclusion, there is a wide range of
transformation pathways that are projected for Germany, and there is far from consensus on how to technically achieve a reduction in CO2 emissions of at least 90% by 2050 in comparison to 1990 levels. This, in turn, illustrates that there is still much need for research and discussion to
identify feasible and sustainable transformation strategies towards a 'net zero' energy system for Germany
Comparison of macroeconomic developments in ten scenarios of energy system transformation in Germany: National and regional results
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Background: Different strategies have been proposed for transforming the energy system in Germany. To evaluate
their sustainability, it is necessary to analyze their macroeconomic and distributional effects. An approach to do this
analysis in an integrated consistent framework is presented here.
Methods: Comparing ten energy transition scenarios with emission reduction targets by 2050 of 80% or 95%,
respectively, allows evaluating a broad range of energy system transformation strategies with respect to the future
technology and energy carrier mix. For this purpose, an energy system model and a macroeconometric model are
combined, thus re-modeling the unified scenarios. An important extension of the model was concerned with the
integration of synthetic fuels into the energy-economy model. One focus besides the overall macroeconomic assessment is the regional analysis. For this purpose, own assumptions on the regional distribution of the expansion of
renewable energies were developed.
Results: The effects on gross domestic product (GDP) and employment are similar on average from 2030 to 2050
across the scenarios, with most of the more ambitious scenarios showing slightly higher values for the socioeconomic
variables. Employment in the construction sector shows the largest effects in most scenarios, while in the energy
sector employment is lower in scenarios with high energy imports. At the regional level, the differences between
scenarios are larger than at the national level. There is no clear or stable regional pattern of relative loss and profit from
the very ambitious transformation, as not only renewable energy expansion varies, and hydrogen strategies enter the
scene approaching 2050.
Conclusions: From the relatively small differences between the scenarios, it can be concluded that, from a macroeconomic perspective, it is not decisive for the overall economy which (supply side) strategy is chosen for the transformation of the energy system. More effort needs to be put into improving assumptions and modeling approaches
related to strategies for achieving the final 20% CO2 reduction, for example the increasing use of hydroge
Sustainability assessments of energy scenarios: citizensâ preferences for and assessments of sustainability indicators
Background: Given the multitude of scenarios on the future of our energy systems, multi-criteria assessments are increasingly called for to analyze and assess desired and undesired effects of possible pathways with regard to their environmental, economic and social sustainability. Existing studies apply elaborate lists of sustainability indicators, yet these indicators are defined and selected by experts and the relative importance of each indicator for the overall sustainability assessments is either determined by experts or is computed using mathematical functions. Target group-specific empirical data regarding citizensâ preferences for sustainability indicators as well as their reasoning behind their choices are not included in existing assessments.
Approach and results: We argue that citizensâ preferences and values need to be more systematically analyzed. Next to valid and reliable data regarding diverse sets of indicators, reflections and deliberations are needed regarding what different societal actors, including citizens, consider as justified and legitimate interventions in nature and society, and what considerations they include in their own assessments. For this purpose, we present results from a discrete choice experiment. The method originated in marketing and is currently becoming a popular means to systematically analyze individualsâ preference structures for energy technology assessments. As we show in our paper, it can be fruitfully applied to study citizensâ values and weightings with regard to sustainability issues. Additionally, we present findings from six focus groups that unveil the reasons behind citizensâ preferences and choices.
Conclusions: Our combined empirical methods provide main insights with strong implications for the future development and assessment of energy pathways: while environmental and climate-related effects significantly influenced citizensâ preferences for or against certain energy pathways, total systems and production costs were of far less importance to citizens than the public discourse suggests. Many scenario studies seek to optimize pathways according to total systems costs. In contrast, our findings show that the role of fairness and distributional justice in transition processes featured as a dominant theme for citizens. This adds central dimensions for future multi-criteria assessments that, so far, have been neglected by current energy systems models
Integrated Multidimensional Sustainability Assessment of Energy System Transformation Pathways
Sustainable development embraces a broad spectrum of social, economic and ecological aspects. Thus, a sustainable transformation process of energy systems is inevitably multidimensional and needs to go beyond climate impact and cost considerations. An approach for an integrated and interdisciplinary sustainability assessment of energy system transformation pathways is presented here. It first integrates energy system modeling with a multidimensional impact assessment that focuses on life cycleâbased environmental and macroeconomic impacts. Then, stakeholdersâ preferences with respect to defined sustainability indicators are inquired, which are finally integrated into a comparative scenario evaluation through a multiâcriteria decision analysis (MCDA), all in one consistent assessment framework. As an illustrative example, this holistic approach is applied to the sustainability assessment of ten different transformation strategies for Germany. Applying multiâcriteria decision analysis reveals that both ambitious (80%) and highly ambitious (95%) carbon reduction scenarios can achieve top sustainability ranks, depending on the underlying energy transformation pathways and respective scores in other sustainability dimensions. Furthermore, this research highlights an increasingly dominant contribution of energy systemsâ upstream chains on total environmental impacts, reveals rather small differences in macroeconomic effects between different scenarios and identifies the transition among societal segments and climate impact minimization as the most important stakeholder preferences
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